Good news and not so good news.
Quinnipiac (6/17-24, likely voters):
Mark Udall (D): 48
Bob Schaffer (R): 38
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±2.7%)Al Franken (D): 41
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 51
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±2.5%)
Franken pulls even with women voters (45-45), but loses men by a 57-37 margin. Independents also favor Coleman by 55-35. The poll also shows Franken in trouble among those living in union households, where he is tied with Coleman at 47-47. There’s still lots of time on the clock, but Franken has his work cut out for him, even if Obama is leading in the state by 54-37 in the same poll.
Udall is in much better shape, earning a 54-27 margin among independents and only losing males by three points (43-46), while winning women voters by 53-32.
I wish Betty McCollum got in.
In other states, Sen. Schumer didn’t hesitate to step in when he felt one of the Democratic candidates could not win in the general (Virginia 2006, Oregon 2008).
But, in Minnesota, for some reason, Franken (with very mediocre favorability ratings) got the party nomination without much of a fight at all.
With the political climate in Minnesota so strongly favoring Democrats, there really isn’t any excuse for what is going on in the Senate race.
The primary filing deadline is July 15. Whether or not it is Mike Ciresi, hopefully a viable challenger emerges.
I’d say his problem is that people perceive him as an activist commentator rather than as someone who has his constituents’ needs in mind.
Also, how is Obama doing in CO?
Not great news for Franken but right now he’s pretty consistently about 8 points behind. He can make up that gap for sure. Remember that Paul Wellstone was down by about 30 points at this point.
Rumor has it that Franken is trying to get one of the Obama’s to come campaign for him or cut a ad for him. I think that’s going to be needed for him to win. And I still think he still can win.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Musgrove (D)- 47
Wicker (R)- 46
smith, collins, dole, mcconnell all around 50% in most polls with their opponents between 40 and 45%. one of the reasons franken got this nomination is because he has amassed a hell of a warchest (unlike merkley or hagan).
the good use of that money will make a difference here, as well as any debate performance. show biz candidates are usually considered jokes until the debates.
it won’t be easy, but it is doable. nobody will enter before the primary because franken would blow them out. although maybe the lifting of the millionaire’s amendment will pique ciresi’s interest.
I say if two more polls come out showing Udall with a double digit lead we can put Colorado in the bag. It doesn’t seem like Schaffer has anywhere to go but down and even if he did pull up at that point I think he will have dug to far. In Minnesota I think Franken isn’t out yet but I think he’s finding that it’s tough to lose an image and it’s very easy for the republicans to paint one here. He essentialy needs to get on the ball and have a better rapid responce team he’s being painted to much.
I was never a huge fan of Franken. I think he is far too liberal fo the people of most of Minnesota. Coleman has put forth a moderate image, deserved or not, but he might be actually more in step with Minnesota than Frankin.
Not to mention as someone pointed out, Franken, while a comedian has said some very unflatering things about Republicans, again, deserved or not. I think we have a better shot in Maine and Oregon than we do here, and its a shame since Coleman was truly an accidental Senator. He should be on his way out, this was a case of Democrats, or the DFL, doing what Republicans always seem to do: nominate the least electable.
I’m not saying that Frankin won’t pull this off, but I just don’t think that is very likely, unless Coleman pulls a Macaca. If I were Frankin, I’d have someone following him around with a video camera, just like Webb did.